Conservatives take lead in Quebec, next...the world! (or Ontario anyway)

What may be the last of the relevant polls we will see until the fall was released over the weekend, and the headlines seemed to trumpet it as a return to where we were at last year's election. (37-31-16)

But there was one interesting fact in the results that I am quite surprised did not receive more play.

The Conservative Party is leading the polls in the Province of Quebec. Leading the Bloc by four points, and the Liberals by eight. (28-24-20)

Stephane Dion's Liberals have no real chance to claim any of the ridings currently represented by the Bloc, so the Conservatives are well placed to have a HUGE breakthrough in the province.

This is especially surprising as the opposition has labelled Quebec as queasy and uneasy about Canada's involvement in Afghanistan, and they feel that any deaths occuring when the Vandoos regiment is rotated to Afghanistan will destroy the Tories. I don't think that will happen at all. If anything, I think it will put the people of Quebec more solidly behind the mission than ever.

The Conservative Party is well placed, and the longer they are in power, more of the federalist vote in Quebec will realize that the Conservative Party is a real alternative. And with that, more and more erstwhile Liberal voters will cross the divide and enrich the Conservative seat count.

We have all seen over the years that a switch in Quebecoise political tastes soon transfers over to Ontario as well, putting the Conservatives in position to clean up in Central Canada in a 2008 spring election. (Or this fall if McGuinty gets trounced at the polls)

The Liberals being in the 30s in this poll is an indication of the strength of their brand, not Stephane Dion. I am still convinced that the Conservatives could have received their majority had they gone to the polls this spring. In a direct Harper vs Dion comparison, there is no comparison. As one elderly fellow said to me after meeting Dion at an event this weekend, "what a nerd". No one has been exposed to Dion for an extended period. At the end of a campaign the Liberals would have fallen to the low 20s in popular support.

The Conservatives should use the summer to get their legislative act together (it has been a little sloppy recently), come back in the fall looking like a party ready to lead the nation, and the people will give them their majority. They need to draft a clear and concise message, stay on that message, and the votes will come their way.

And maybe kick the unelected and unaccountable Senate a couple times for good measure.


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Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next President of the United States of America

Mr. Fred Thompson

In his speech, Thompson criticized Democrats as he discussed terrorism, Iraq and national security. "Our choice is not whether or not we're going to fight. Our choice is where we're going to fight," Thompson said. "And the only debate going on right now with regard to this most important issue facing our country on the Democratic side of the aisle is the date of our surrender. My friends, I don't think that the American people are going to turn the keys of this country over to a party that invests their political capital in defeat.""


Just putting it on the record. Am willing to wager.



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Two-step Duceppe wusses out

One bad poll. That's all it took for Gilles Duceppe to start running for the hills.

A CROP poll on Saturday showed Duceppe may have had a challenger for the PQ crown in one Pauline Marois. Ms. Marois was defeated by Andre Boisclair in the last PQ leadership race, and was set to make another run.

This poll showed Marois favoured by a margin of 45-21. So did Gilles wait for the next poll before doing something rash?

No.

Gilles decided, based on one early poll result (the first in fact) to "take it back" and not run for PQ leader after all.

"I quit"

Had he not referenced any other polls before making this momentous decision? Did he only enter on a hunch? Did he not think he might have to FIGHT..to lead the Parti Quebecoise? C'mon..

By stepping out of the PQ leadership race within 24 hours of his entry into it, Gilles Duceppe may have ruined his career, and the chances for the Bloc in the next election.

Gilles "No stomach for a fight" Duceppe will be subject to ridicule for the rest of his time in the Commons. He will no longer command the respect required in the House to be taken seriously.

If the Bloc does not remove Duceppe from his leadership position soon, it will be tarred with the same brush full of wussyness.

And no one votes for a wussy.

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Harper, take it to the airwaves

The opposition has had a field day of sorts in the past few weeks with their constant bombardment of the Conservatives over the treatment of terrorist/insurgent detainees in Afghanistan.

The Bloc would like to see these prisoners offered a get out of jail free card, the NDP wants them to be included in some sort of restorative justice program, and the Liberals would like these criminals kidnapped from their native land, and jailed in Canada.

The ungodly Conservatives want Afghan prisoners to be (gasp) imprisoned in Afghanistan.

So how is it that out of these four options, the Conservatives ended up wearing this mess? The appearance of inconsistent messaging, that is how.

Any little alteration of message by a Conservative MP was picked up by the opposition parties and the press and distorted to the max.

As the opposition picked away at this issue for weeks upon end, it was obviously of great importance to them, and through them their constituents, who represent a majority of Canadian citizens.

On a matter that important, it falls to the Prime Minister to go directly to the people and explain the situation. Harper should have done a prime time address on national TV, and laid out the situation once and for all, without the usual media filter.

After all, if Paul Martin can go to the airwaves in a freak-out over the chance he might lose a confidence vote, surely Stephen Harper can go to the people when the representatives of 60% of the Canadian population are foaming at the mouth demanding answers?

Perhaps it is too late now, but as Harper's previous skirting of the press gallery by going to the local press showed, if your message is being purposefully distorted, there are other ways to get your message out. One well timed address to the Canadian people on our role in Afghanistan, the treatment of terrorist/insurgent prisoners, and the absurd solutions offered by the opposition, would have taken the air out of all this, and quick.


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More than a little shocking

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- When asked to raise their hands if they don't believe in evolution, Sen. Sam Brownback, Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Tom Tancredo all said they do not.

"I believe in evolution," Sen. John McCain said. "But I also believe, when I hike the Grand Canyon and see it at sunset, that the hand of God is there also."

-- CNN Associate Producer Lauren Kornreich


I'm sorry, but belief in evolution should be a Presidential prerequisite. And yes, I know that means Myron Thompson can't be President..so spare me.

UPDATE: Interesting that the picture used in the CNN story..is a screencap of MSNBC! Where do CNN producers get their news? MSNBC apparently.. ha, ha..

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Is the Enviro-craze coming to an end?

Tonight...on The National (where the CBC's just apologized for using footage of Canadian soldiers in a story about Bush and Iraq ((that's what, the fifth time in the last month that the CBC has had to apologize for some error of bias?))), not one mention of Climate Change, Climate Crisis, Death of our Planet, etc..for the first time in forever.

Could this be the sign that fascination with the environment is on the wane?

The main stories were on Shane Doan, and Afghanistan. Better for the Conservatives that the voters are focusing on hockey and Afghanistan than on the environment. A majority of Canadians support our troops in Afghanistan.

With all economic indicators predicting, at the least a mild economic recession, citizens will soon be preoccupied with the necessities of life: jobs, mortgage payments, and taxes...not the environment.

Moral of the story? Stephen Harper should not seek an election this spring. Wait it out.


update: I was wrong, but right. The environment came up at 54 minutes past the hour. When Rex Murphy called the exaggeration of the climate situation loony. It's over, and the blowback has begun. Thank Elizabeth May.


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Turn up the volume on Denis Coderre's hate-on for Captain Canada

Liberal members of Parliament want to haul Hockey Canada officials, including Steve Yzerman and other hockey greats, before a Parliamentary Committee so they can "explain" why Shane Doan of the Phoenix Coyotes was made Captain of Team Canada at this year's world championships.

Shane Doan's supposed crime? Belligerent Liberal MP Denis Coderre says Doan once called a hockey linesman a frog. Doan denies the incident ever happened. Doan has even gone so far as to take Coderre to court to get him to retract his accusation, and be compensated for the resulting impact on Doan's reputation.

So it was no surprise when this issue surfaced in Parliament with Coderre henchman, Liberal MP Marcel Proulx, carrying the torch for Coderre, who can't comment on the matter (conveniently) due to ongoing litigation.

So why does all this matter? Well first off, it's stupid.

Secondly, the Conservatives are currently getting grief from all the media focus on their embattled Defence Minister, Gordon O'Connor. So what do you do when you are catching flak from one controversy? You change the channel by creating another controversy.

There will be plenty of Canadian media interest if Yzerman et al appear before the Committee. The Conservatives should be a loud voice of reason on this issue, and the defenders of Canadian hockey. Video clips of the proceeding would see petty Liberals picking on hockey greats, and Conservatives decrying the waste of taxpayer dollars such an exercise will surely be.

I'm sure the politicians might be startled to know this, but the NHL playoffs are on, so Canadians aren't very interested in what is happening on the Hill right now. What they would be interested in however, is a Liberal attempt to mess with Team Canada's ability to win the World Hockey Championship. And they would certainly take notice if the Conservatives raised the volume on this issue, and painted the Liberals as haters of everything hockey.

The Liberals have given the Conservatives a great opportunity here to draw attention to the Liberal anti-hockey hysterics, Coderre's petty vendetta against Shane Doan, and in the process lock-up the hockey vote and move attention away from the Defence Minister.

That all this is happening while there are still two Canadian teams in the playoffs, and the Shane Doan led Team Canada is likely to bring home the gold...is too good an opportunity to miss.

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Global warming? Sure, but not why you think

Climate change hits Mars

Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap, writes Jonathan Leake.

Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period.

So is global warming actually caused by a periodic cycle of heightened sun activity, one that affects the other planets in the inner solar system as well?

Perhaps the real danger to the environment is the hot air currently being spewed by so many eco-lunatics.

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New Brunswick gets down to bidness, and starts romancing Alberta

In January, New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham paid a long overdue visit to the economic heartland of the maritimes, Alberta. Well I've heard that since that visit, the NB government has been very persistent in pushing Alberta firms to create positions for NBers.

What? Alberta?, you say. Well, if you did not know, there are already a large number of Nova Scotian and NFLD expats working in Alberta, but they do not live there. Sure they pay to share an apartment, but the bulk of the money they make gets sent back to their loved ones at home, and is spent in the local economy.

This speaks to the passion and commitment Atlantic Canadians have to their home provinces.

There is also a tertiary benefit to the east coast from having so many of their citizens working in Alberta. With so many people working in Alberta, inevitably a large number will move into management roles.

Now who do you think these managers are going to want to do business with? Well, they tend to deal with firms from back home.

So the other Atlantic provinces DO have pre-existing business with Alberta, and to their benefit. And until recently, it appeared that NB had no interest at all in the vibrant Alberta economy.

For some reason Bernard Lord did not latch onto the send-home revenue, or the possibility of future business. So Lord never encouraged long distance commuting, or even any business development with Alberta.

As a result, New Brunswick is way behind NS and NFLD in these revenue producing areas.

Rome wasn't built in a day, and New Brunswick can't be expected to eclipse NS and NFLD in the near future. But the steps Shawn Graham is taking are the necessary first steps in building a productive and prosperous relationship with Alberta.

Good on him.

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Protest vote my ass. That's a revolution.

With an Action Democratique win, Premier Dumont will lead anything but a silent revolution in Quebec.

Even if he ends up a close second, Dumont will control the rudder of Quebec politics.
What a night!

Premier Dumont?

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The Birth of the Community Surgery Centre©

CP - John Tory said he's sticking to his guns but welcomed the opposing viewpoint – and the interest his position has generated. ``I think people recognize I'm prepared to take a stand on an issue,'' Tory said. ``I don't apologize for the fact I say I would explore and embrace (private knee surgeries) because I think we have to think outside the box.''

What Tory said here takes real cahones.

I'm not that interested in Ontario provincial politics, but I believe there is an entire segment of Ontario's middle class that wouldn't mind spending a little extra money to have a procedure done more quickly at a Community Surgery Centre© (aka a pay-for-care hospital).

What if Tory start talking about how the entrance of private facilities would free up public hospital space so they could focus on more of the vital surgeries? Or what if he pointed out that Community Surgery Centres© would create more spaces for doctors? Our schools would be able to train and graduate more surgeons, and we'd be able to accept more foreign physicians. There really do seem to be some advantages in pairing Community Surgery Centres© with the public health care system.

And what would happen if Tory's Tory party suggested this surgery alternative possibility as part of his platform? I think a number of middle class Liberal voters might actually go for it, and vote Blue. And the left end of Liberal support would cry out in horror, and run to vote for the one-public-health-care-system-come-hell-or-high water NDP, thereby splitting Liberal support.

Would some Tory support move left to the Liberals, definitely, but enough to turn the tables? I don't know. But it might be worth the gamble.

At the very least, if he proffered a limited form of what might, in some circles, be known as two-tier health care, you know everyone in the province would be talking about it during an election campaign. And if they are talking about you, they are more likely to vote for you.

(the author of this post is in no way a supporter of any facility that would operate in contravention of the Canada Health Act©)


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Election signs or electoral gold mines?

I'm not planning on being a political candidate for any national party. Not yet anyway. But if I do run (or you want to) here's a great way to gain attention and votes.

In any federal election, when you drive through a business district, you inevitably see signs for: this, that, or the other candidate. In some shops you'll see signs for three or more local candidates.

A store that will put your sign in the window is a valuable asset. But they also hold a hidden treasure you can use to your benefit...their inventory or services.

As a local candidate for federal office, I would assign a member of my campaign team to enter into free advertising arrangements with local stores. And rather than hand out a boring old one page folded photographed brochure, I would spend a little bit more and develop high quality glossy handouts that included rebate and discount coupons for these local merchants.

It could include:

Factual information on yourself, your ideas, your convictions..not to mention some great pictures of you connecting with constituents.
A coupon for 2 for 1 meals a local eaterie.
Discounts for family haircuts.
1/2 off your next Oil Change.
10% off your purchase at a clothing store.
Free vacuum with any car wash.
A map indicating the establishments that have provided discounts....no end of possibilities.

This way you are providing information on you, and your party's platform in a professional package, and that good aura will rub off on you. At the same time you are providing proof positive of your commitment to serve the community. You've already delivered money saving discounts constituents just by running, imagine what you could do if you were elected!

This section sponsored by: Openness and Transparency.

Here's the caveat. I'm not sure this practice would be in line with Canada's election laws. If someone is more familiar with the Election Act than I, please enlighten me.

At the same time, you are not accepting donations from these merchants. You are merely allowing them to offer great discounts to the individuals that receive your campaign literature. And recipients do not have to promise to vote for you to use the coupon, they are available for use by anyone.

If this thoughtful act reflects positively on you that is fantastic marketing, last I check fantastic marketing is not mentioned in the Elections Act.


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Veteran Liberal MP enticed to cross floor

73-year-old MP and former Liberal cabinet minister Joe Comuzzi said he will vote against the Liberal Party and with the government if he determines that some of that new money ends up funding a Thunder Bay cancer institute.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion refused to entertain the possibility of a caucus member siding with the government, telling reporters "all of us will vote against this budget. We will."

Even if there wasn't already money for this Thunder Bay cancer facility before, you can bet the Conservatives will make sure there is tomorrow. Now that is how you deliver results for your community.

(Update: Joe Comuzzi has been kicked out of the Liberal caucus)

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FREEBIE!

Read it? No thanks, I saw the movie.

Liberal debate strategists had better start thinking up an answer for this:

"The leader of the Opposition doesn't single out for criticism any single initiative in this budget," Stephen Harper said. "But he's going to vote against every single one of them because he already made up his mind before he read it, and that's something he'll have to explain in the next election."

I can't imagine why Liberal strategists couldn't pick even one item in the budget to focus their attacks on. Dion called the budget a shotgun budget, and he provided a shotgun critique. And in the end, no one will remember any of the reasons Dion expressed for opposing the budget.

What people will remember is:

We made a choice,” Mr. Flaherty said. “We chose to support hard-working families.”


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Here come the floor crossings..

I have it on good authority that several Liberal MPs are considering crossing the floor, en masse, to the Conservatives.

Yes, it seems to be moderately based on this sort of speculation, but it has less to do with the budget than the left wing extremist track the Liberal Party has taken of late.

My proof? I have none. Need some hints? Look at certain aspects of the budget and think, now that doesn't seem like a Conservative item...who on the other side of the floor would want that in the budget?

I'm just jotting this down so when it happens, I can say, "I told you so!"

And don't worry my friends, none of the potential floor crossers have the initials G.T.

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Peter Kent on mission to win Thornhill for the Conservatives

Former TV anchor makes second bid at federal politics

Good. We need more Peter Kents.

Will there will be an election this spring..probably not

Speculation is that there will be an election this spring. I'm pretty sure it won't happen.

Sure, Dion is stumbling, the Bloc is weak, the NDP increasingly irrelevant. But ideally, what Harper wants (needs) is Canadians to get comfortable with a Conservative government. The Conservative's inability to approach the magical 40% mark in the polls, means that they are not quite there yet. Going to the polls after only a year in office does not lend credibility to the Conservative claim to be able to govern the nation.

For this reason it would behoove Harper to stay in office for another year, and if he can stay relatively scandal and gaffe free, chances are more middle of the road Canadians will gravitate towards his Conservative Party. This is especially true if Harper can herd the cats that are the opposition parties, this would build on his already growing reputation as a true leader.

Current poll results put the Liberals with anywhere from 28-34% support. This represents the inherent value in the Liberal brand, not support for Dion.

If an election were called, the contest suddenly becomes Harper vs. Dion. When that direct comparison is made, support for Harper jumps to over 50%. This does seem like a great reason to have an election.

Is there a danger that Dion might suddenly become a competant leader in the course of a year? Maybe. But the likelihood is that he will continue to falter, and the longer he is out there, the louder the whispers from the back of the room will get. How long before Ignatieff's and Rae's people openly brandish their knives, rather than quietly plotting in Ottawa steakhouses as they do now? Best to leave the lid on that stew, and let the pressure build.

So while there are some advantages in going to the polls now, patience is a virtue, and could lead to a majority.

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Oh, me so corny - or - Ethanol and free speech

I can see how the Television Bureau of Canada might have had a problem with this ad from the Canadian Renewable Fuels Association.

I don't think they should have prevented its airing, but I could see why they would have some concerns.



It DOES seem more than a little friendly to the Conservatives.

However, free speech is free speech. You can and should use a politicians words to frame your argument.


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Stephane Dion takes high road, sends Garth Turner to do dirty work

Liberal leader Stephane Dion:

"I will keep the high road, and I'm very convinced it's the best way to have majority support at the next election."

Liberal hatchetman Garth Turner:

"Harper is a political whore."


Well. How rude, but not entirely unexpected.


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I'm on to you, Harper...

I noticed recently that the funding for Status of Women, previously cut by the Tories, has been re-pledged.

It was one of a large number of cuts to federal programs, ones the Conservatives thought provided minimal value, which took place immediately after they took power. And it was one of the few cuts that persisted in coming up during interviews, media stories, and Question Period.

This episode might provide an interesting window into how Stephen Harper operates:

1. 
   Cut the funding for dozens of "questionable" federal programs.


2. 
   Wait for voter reaction.


3. 
   Re-fund only those few programs that actually garner public outcry.


4. 
   Net result: Less program spending, more room in the budget, minimal political impact.

The Tories did the same thing with the environment, and now are seen as being as environmentally friendly as Stephane Dion.

Nice technique.


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Stephane Dion promises to raise taxes

Now if you were the leader of a major political party in Canada, and you had already been branded weak on leadership, soft on terror, and had the one issue you "owned" (the environment) stolen from you...what would you say in a major Ottawa speech? A major speech that the Press Gallery was calling your one chance to recapture the agenda from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Do or die time, what would you say?

Would you tell Canadians that you plan to raise their taxes?

Well that is what Stephane Dion has done. No, I'm not making this up. I am allowed to make stuff up, but here I am not. Who brought up this gem at the strategy table, Denis Coderre? Yikes.

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